Sigh...

Sometimes, it's all so predictable...the Budget has been touted for weeks in advance as 'tough'.  Before the election the Institute for Fiscal Studies costed all manifestoes and confirmed that all parties would have to make deep spending cuts to balance the books - cuts which none of them were willing to spell out before May 6th.  So far, only half of the equation is known to us ie the welfare cuts and tax rises.  The real pain will come when the spending review is concluded in the Autumn and it becomes clear where the axe will fall, given that Health and DFID are protected. 

I think we all know that things have got to change.  The private sector is no longer large enough to pay for the public services we currently enjoy, so the balance needs to be re-set.   Everyone of every political stripe recognises this and yet...in their response to the Budget yesterday, I think we saw the same old, disingenuous posturing from all of the opposition parties (secretly probably relieved not to have to deliver this budget).    

I'm reminded of something James Meek wrote in the London Review of Books a couple of weeks ago about the conspiracy "which prevails in modern Western democracies between voters and the governments they elect: we, the voters will get to blame you for problems that are actually ours, and in return we will allow you, the government, to pretend that you are steering the country, like a helmsman steering a ship when you can't."

Meanwhile, so much for 'new politics'.  As James Meek concluded, democracy needs reinvention and with so much else going on, how likely is that to happen?  On the other hand, can we afford for it not to ? 

These and other troublesome issues make BM sigh.

Pre-Budget nerves

News of some of the measures due to be announced tomorrow have been gradually leaking out and speculation simply adds to the anxiety for BM who worries on behalf of the schools she is responsible for.   Cuts in year to higher education, which have been highlighted over at Normblog are beginning to take effect, with whole departments being cut in some instances.  Locally, a friend whose husband works as a lecturer at City of Westminster, is worried because his contract has just been re-written offering him £2,000 per annum less with more responsibility or he can take redundancy and several secondary schools which had followed the then DCSF guidance and offered Diplomas as an alternative to GCSE/A Level have had to give staff notice overnight, as that funding has been cut in-year as part of the £6bn savings announced by George Osborne 2 weeks ago.

That earlier 'mini-budget' included cuts to local authorities early years improvement work with private, independent and voluntary sector daycare and early years providers, which will come to an abrupt end.  That alone makes BM nervous about the commitment to Surestart and Early Years provision in general.    If I thought that any of these cuts were driven by evidence based research which showed that the services provided were inefficient or ineffective, I would be less worried but that is palpably not the case.

Whilst I have great sympathy for third level educators, all of the research evidence shows that that is the most expensive sector in education.  If one thinks of the funding of 0-19 education as a pyramid, it is inverted in that the bulk of the spending occurs from age 12 upwards and yet, this is in direct contrast to the research which shows that funding of the Early Years is crucial to success in later education and life chances generally. 

Early Years education is complex, dealing as it does with issues such as behaviour management as well as early appreciation and development of literacy, numeracy, science and physical development.  The success of early years intervention is not easily measured and certainly not in the short-term which makes it an easy target.  To someone not familiar with the sector and the research, it just looks like expensive childcare. 

Will the Budget display an evidence-based approach to the distribution and allocation of cuts ?  We will get our answer tomorrow.